Let’s talk about Donald Drumpf. Excuse me, Trump.
You’re probably already overfed with stories about the orange Grinch, but I’m here to put your mind at ease. I’m going to prove to you that he will never ever be President of the United States. Well, unless his head is preserved in a jar and he tries again in a couple of millenia…
“How can you be so sure?” you might ask. Well shut up and continue reading, I’m getting there, you impatient goon… Ahem, sorry about that, dealing with Mr. Trump all day seems to have made me quick to lose my temper and resort to blind slander. Happens to the best of us.Your question is valid, though: If we look at the current delegate count, Mr. Trump’s candidacy looks pretty promising. There are people who claim they’ve found indicators that he might actually win this thing. (As always, the Simpsons did it first.)
Alright, tell you what: Already, he’s won twenty states, you know, and it looks like he could win thirty or fourty or fifty or sixty. It’s really been — it’s really been great, you know. Speaking of great, you know, he’s going to make America great again, folks. You know, he’s going to make it great again. You know.
Okay, that’s enough mimicry for today. You know what they say about making faces – if you do it long enough, it might stay that way. I don’t want to risk looking like this:
First we have to look at why we don’t want him to win… Just kidding, we all know why.
So let’s discuss if he can even get the nomination. Playing around with this neat interactive calculator by the New York Times, we quickly realize that it’s literally impossible for any of his opponents to get the required number of delegates to win the nomination. (Thank god that John Kasich is still hanging in there though, right?) Nevertheless, some people are still convinced the GOP has another ace up its sleeve and Trump won’t make it to the general in November – unless, of course, he runs as an independent.
People love to talk about that scenario. But it doesn’t really matter at this point because this is not gonna happen. A lot of the states are already out of the game for Trump, since they have deadlines or regulations or some other mechanism that makes it impossible for him to be on the ballot as an independent in November. Plus, if he waits until after the Republican National Convention in July, there’s no way on Earth that he would achieve anything with a non-partisan bid.
Which doesn’t mean he wouldn’t try anyway. He’s been alluding to it, but it’s probably just a bluff. Or perhaps not. Maybe he wants to get back at the GOP for running a campaign against him or maybe he’s even more delusional than I think. Either way, we can ignore this whole thought experiment because he won’t become president if he runs independently or as a candidate for a third party, I think that’s pretty obvious. The only thing that would come from that would be a devastating result at the general for the Republicans.
Now that we know he would need his current party’s support to win, we should look at the likelihood of that happening. Will Trump be the Republican candidate for the 2016 election? As I mentioned above, he’s pretty much the only choice the GOP has right now. Unless they bite the bullet and pick Ted Cruz, who they seem to hate just as much, or send a new player into the game, say Paul Ryan.
But they won’t. Firstly, because he doesn’t even want to run. Secondly, because that would mean the end of the Grand Old Party. Conservative voters would not be happy about the leaders switching out their favorite for someone else. It just looks too much like bending the rules. Which it isn’t, though – just for the record. But people would not swallow that. Trump will conjure a political storm if he’s replaced as the Republican candidate, we have him on record. I just don’t see the GOP having the balls to pull this off in spite of it all.
Let’s move on, then – to November. The Donald v. Hillary? Or maaaybe Bernie?
Let’s not talk about that last idea for now, because I just don’t see it happening. It would be great, sure. But great things don’t happen very often, especially not in U.S. politics. In the unlikely case that Sanders wins, however, I promise that I will rewrite this next part, but I don’t think it will help Trump’s chances either way.
Now that we know who he’s up against, we have to find out which of the two will be allowed to reside in the White House for at least the next four years. First things first: people got used to saying “President Clinton” once before, so there’s a good chance they will again. I mean it wouldn’t be the first time for something like this to happen. In fact, it wouldn’t even be the fifth time – America loves their dynasties.
Plus, bonus points for having Bill as the First Lady:
All kidding aside, the idea of Hillary as POTUS is in fact not new. She already ran in 2008 but ultimately lost the nomination to Barack Obama for those of you who are too young to have known or too indifferent to have cared. I’ve actually heard people say that her time has come – just because she’s been waiting for this for so long. But come on people, this is not House Of Cards. Even though Frank Underwood’s initials would go well with Hillary’s campaign style, I guess.
But let’s get back to the topic at hand: Donald Trump. Even if Clinton’s not the most qualified candidate, she’s still a lot better than him, can we agree on that? Well, apparently not. In some polls, it looks like Hillary’s in the clear lead, while others suggest that the Donald might actually win if he can woo currently undecided voters. For those of you who hadn’t noticed: both of those graphics show the same thing, it’s just a different way to present it. Don’t be fooled by the framing effect! By the way: if you’re still hoping for Bernie, he’s even more likely to beat Trump according to polls.
So that answers our question once and for all, right? Well, not quite. Here’s the thing about surveys and polls: a lot of the time they’re not that accurate. Do you know what you want to eat for dinner… in November? Picking your favorite kind of food seems like a safe bet. After all, you’ve never not been up for hot dogs (or whatever). But you never know what might happen between now and then. What if you learn how horribly horrific pigs are treated? It’s possible you will never want to have pork again.
Alright, candidates are not dishes, but an election does have a lot do with taste and appetite. Seven months are more than enough for the media to make you loathe your favorite (or least hated) politician. So let’s not rely solely on polls. Which means we’re back to the start: How can we be absolutely sure the Donald will not be commander-in-chief around this time next year?
Enough people think he has a decent shot at the presidency and have already formed strategies for him. But let me tell you why newspapers even publish articles like that: social media. Yes, I’m serious. Pieces discussing America’s favorite blowhard spread like wildfire and journalists and writers love it (I mean there’s a reason I’m writing this blog post). An entire country – the whole world even, is running around like a headless chicken because we let a clown with an axe get too close to the henhouse called politics.
Trump is a businessman, yes. But he’s also a showman. He was part of a reality TV show, for crying out loud! And his reason for beheading a helpless farm animal was wanting to cause a scene. Once it’s finally dead, he will have nothing more to say – because no one’s there to listen. What makes the Donald so strong is that people actually care about what he says. We retweet him, share articles about his latest antics, and we create lots and lots of content about this man. I, for one, am almost finished writing a long blog post about him. Also, look at all the memes! (If a picture’s worth a thousand words, one like = one meme.)
My point is: there’s only so many things you can say to shock people. Eventually desensitization will kick in and we’ll get back to the real issues. When that happens, Trump will stand there, with nothing of value to add, and Hillary will take home the win because she’s an actual politician with real life experience. And it will happen. Long before November comes around, because it’s already been starting to happen. Mark my words: Trump will lose.